No subject
Fri Apr 13 10:54:12 PDT 2007
<h2>Grain prices go the way of the oil price</h2>
<p>EVERY morning millions of Americans confront the latest trend in
commodities markets at their kitchen table. According to the United
States Department of Agriculture, rising prices for crops—dubbed
“agflation”—has begun to drive up the cost of breakfast. The price of
orange juice has risen by a quarter over the past year, eggs by a fifth
and milk by roughly 5%. Breakfast-cereal makers, such as Kellogg's and
General Mills, have also raised their prices. Underpinning these rises
is a sharp increase in the prices of grains such as corn (maize) and
wheat, both of which recently hit ten-year highs. Analysts are
beginning to ask, as they have of oil and metals, whether higher prices
are here to stay.</p>
<p>On the face of it, that is an odd question. After all, if the world
runs short of corn or wheat, farmers can simply grow more, weather
permitting. That is exactly what they have been doing. In the coming
year, the International Grains Council, an industry group, estimates
that global production of grains will reach a record of 1,660m tonnes,
well above last year's figure of 1,569m. But demand for grain is
growing even faster. The council reckons it will reach 1,680m tonnes
this year. In three of the past four years, demand has exceeded supply.</p>
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<p>The culprit is the growing use of grains to make biofuels, such as
ethanol. Most grains are used as food either for people or for
livestock. But the increase in human consumption has been slowing for
decades as population growth moderates. Demand for animal feed,
meanwhile, has grown steadily, as more people in booming countries such
as China grow rich enough to afford meat.</p>
<p>Demand for biofuel feedstocks, by contrast, is soaring. The amount
of corn used to make ethanol in America has tripled since 2000; ethanol
distilleries now consume a fifth of the country's corn crop. And
America is only one of 41 countries where governments are encouraging
the use of biofuels to reduce oil consumption.</p>
<p>As a result, demand for grains has accelerated. During the 1990s,
when oil was cheap and biofuels unheard of, demand grew by 1.2% a year,
according to Goldman Sachs. But in recent years, it has increased by
1.4%, and over the next decade, Goldman projects, it will rise by 1.9%
annually.</p>
<p>Farmers are struggling to keep up. The Economist Intelligence Unit,
a sister company of <em>The Economist</em>,
projects that demand for corn, at least, will continue to exceed supply
until at least 2009. Moreover, even to produce as much corn as they are
now, farmers are growing less soya and wheat, and so pushing up the
prices of those crops too. With all the main grains to feed poultry and
livestock becoming more expensive, the cost of meat and eggs is rising,
and so it goes on.</p>
<p>When demand was growing more slowly, farmers could meet it through
gradual improvements in their yields. But to cope with today's boom,
yields will have to rise much faster, or farmers will have to bring
more land into production.</p>
<p>Both are possible. Greater adoption of genetically modified strains
of corn and wheat, for example, could improve yields. But they are
expensive and politically controversial. There is also quite a bit of
fallow land to be sowed, especially in developing agricultural powers
such as Brazil and Ukraine. But those countries are far from the
biggest markets and their idle land tends to be found in areas with
poor transport links. A strong price signal will be needed to overcome
such obstacles and induce extra supplies.</p>
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<p>But even if new land is planted, argues Jeffrey Currie of Goldman
Sachs, it will not necessarily reduce the cost of grains. Since high
oil prices and generous government subsidies ensure that biofuels are
profitable, any extra grain will be used to make more of the stuff.
That will not dent the oil price, since the volumes remain tiny
compared with global oil consumption. Instead, the price of biofuels
has risen to that of petrol, and the price of corn and crude oil, the
main feedstocks for the two, have converged (see chart). For grain
prices to fall, Mr Currie argues, either governments must pull the plug
on biofuels programmes, or the oil price must fall.</p>
<p>Neither seems very likely in the near future. This week America's
Congress is debating whether to double its targets for biofuel
production. At the same time, the oil price rose to its highest level
in ten months, thanks to a strike and other disruptions in Nigeria. The
chaos in the Niger delta, it turns out, has a surprising amount to do
with the price of eggs.</p>
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