[Sustain] Best Condemnation Of Biofuel Yet From Monbiot

[Eric Brooks]

http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2008/02/12/the-last-straw/


      The Last Straw
      <http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2008/02/12/the-last-straw/>

Posted February 12, 2008

A new generation of biofuels turns out to be another environmental disaster

By George Monbiot. Published in the Guardian 12th February 2008

Now they might start sitting up. They wouldn't listen to the 
environmentalists or even the geologists. Can governments ignore the 
capitalists?

A report published last week by Citibank, and so far unremarked by the 
media, proposes "genuine difficulties" in increasing the production of 
crude oil, "particularly after 2012."(1) Though 175 big drilling 
projects will start in the next four years, "the fear remains that most 
of this supply will be offset by high levels of decline". The oil 
industry has scoffed at the notion that oil supplies might peak, but 
"recent evidence of failed production growth would tend to shift the 
burden of proof onto the producers", as they have been unable to respond 
to the massive rise in prices. "Total global liquid hydrocarbon 
production has essentially flatlined since mid 2005 at just north of 85 
million barrels per day."

The issue is complicated, as ever, by the refusal of the OPEC cartel to 
raise production. What has changed, Citi says, is that the non-OPEC 
countries can no longer answer the price signal. Does this mean that oil 
production in these nations has already peaked? If so, what do our 
governments intend to do?

Nine months ago, I asked the British government to send me its 
assessments of global oil supply. The results astonished me: there 
weren't any(2). Instead it relied exclusively on one external source: a 
book published by the International Energy Agency. The omission became 
stranger still when I read this book and discovered that it was a crude 
polemic, dismissing those who questioned future oil supplies as 
"doomsayers" without providing robust evidence to support its 
conclusions(3). Though the members of OPEC have a powerful interest in 
exaggerating their reserves in order to boost their quotas, the IEA 
relied on their own assessments of future supply.

Last week I tried again, and I received the same response: "the 
Government agrees with IEA analysis that global oil (and gas) reserves 
are sufficient to sustain economic growth for the foreseeable 
future."(4) Perhaps it hasn't noticed that the IEA is now backtracking. 
The Financial Times says the agency "has admitted that it has been 
paying insufficient attention to supply bottlenecks as evidence mounts 
that oil is being discovered more slowly than once expected ... natural 
decline rates for discovered fields are a closely guarded secret in the 
oil industry, and the IEA is concerned that the data it currently holds 
is not accurate."(5) What if the data turns out to be wrong? What if 
OPEC's stated reserves are a pack of lies? What contingency plans has 
the government made? Answer comes there none.

The European Commission, by contrast, does have a plan, and it's a 
disaster. It recognises that "the oil dependence of the transport sector 
... is one of the most serious problems of insecurity in energy supply 
that the EU faces"(6). Partly in order to diversify fuel supplies, 
partly to cut greenhouse gas emissions, it has ordered the member states 
to ensure that by 2020 10% of the petroleum our cars burn must be 
replaced with biofuels. This won't solve peak oil, but it might at least 
put it into perspective by causing an even bigger problem.

To be fair to the Commission, it has now acknowledged that biofuels are 
not a green panacea. Its draft directive rules that they shouldn't be 
produced by destroying primary forests, ancient grasslands or wetlands, 
as this could cause a net increase in greenhouse gas emissions. Nor 
should any biodiverse ecosystem be damaged in order to grow them(7).

It sounds good, but there are three problems. If biofuels can't be 
produced in virgin habitats, they must be confined to existing 
agricultural land, which means that every time we fill up the car we 
snatch food from people's mouths. This, in turn, raises the price of 
food, which encourages farmers to destroy pristine habitats - primary 
forests, ancient grasslands, wetlands and the rest - in order to grow 
it. We can congratulate ourselves on remaining morally pure, but the 
impacts are the same. There is no way out of this: on a finite planet 
with tight food supplies you either compete with the hungry or clear new 
land.

The third problem is that the Commission's methodology has just been 
blown apart by two new papers. Published in Science magazine, they 
calculate the total carbon costs of biofuel production(8,9). When land 
clearance (caused either directly or by the displacement of food crops) 
is taken into account, all the major biofuels cause a massive increase 
in emissions.

Even the most productive source - sugarcane grown in the scrubby 
savannahs of central Brazil - creates a carbon debt which takes 17 years 
to repay. As the major carbon reductions must be made now, the net 
effect of this crop is to exacerbate climate change. The worst source - 
palm oil displacing tropical rainforest growing in peat - invokes a 
carbon debt of some 840 years. Even when you produce ethanol from maize 
grown on "rested" arable land (which in the EU is called set-aside and 
in the US is called conservation reserve), it takes 48 years to repay 
the carbon debt. The facts have changed. Will the policy follow?

Many people believe there's a way of avoiding these problems: by making 
biofuels not from the crops themselves but from crop wastes. If 
transport fuel can be manufactured from straw or grass or wood chips, 
there are no implications for land use, and no danger of spreading 
hunger. Until recently I believed this myself(10).

Unfortunately most agricultural "waste" is nothing of the kind. It is 
the organic material which maintains the soil's structure, nutrients and 
store of carbon. A paper commissioned by the US government proposes 
that, to help meet its biofuel targets, 75% of annual crop residues 
should be harvested(11). According to a letter published in Science last 
year, removing crop residues can increase the rate of soil erosion 
100-fold(12). Our addiction to the car, in other words, could lead to 
peak soil as well as peak oil(13).

Removing crop wastes means replacing the nutrients they contain with 
fertiliser, which causes further greenhouse gas emissions. A recent 
paper by the Nobel laureate Paul Crutzen suggests that emissions of 
nitrous oxide (a greenhouse gas 296 times more powerful than CO2) from 
nitrogen fertilisers wipe out all the carbon savings biofuels produce, 
even before you take the changes in land use into account(14). Growing 
special second generation crops, such as trees or switchgrass, doesn't 
solve the problem either: like other energy crops, they displace both 
food production and carbon emissions. Growing switchgrass, one of the 
new papers in Science shows, creates a carbon debt of 52 years(15). Some 
people propose making second generation fuels from grass harvested in 
natural meadows or from municipal waste, but it's hard enough to produce 
them from single feedstocks; far harder to manufacture them from a 
mixture. Apart from used chip fat, there is no such thing as a 
sustainable biofuel.

All these convoluted solutions are designed to avoid a simpler one: 
reducing the consumption of transport fuel. But that requires the use of 
a different commodity. Global supplies of political courage appear, 
unfortunately, to have peaked some time ago.

www.monbiot.com

References:

1. Citi, 4th February 2008. Industry Focus: Oil Companies - International.

2. See http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2007/05/29/what-if-the-oil-runs-out/

3. International Energy Agency, 2005. Resources to Reserves: Oil & Gas 
Technologies for the Energy Markets of the Future. Available 
electronically at: http://www.iea.org/textbase/nppdf/free/2005/oil_gas.pdf

4. Email from the Energy Desk, Department for Business, Enterprise and 
Regulatory Reform, 8th February 2008.

5. Dino Mahtani, 26th December 2007. Oil watchdog reworks reserves 
forecasts. The Financial Times.

6. Commission of the European Communities, 23rd January 2008.
Proposal for a Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council
on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources, p8. 
http://ec.europa.eu/energy/climate_actions/doc/2008_res_directive_en.pdf

7. Commission of the European Communities, 23rd January 2008.
Proposal for a Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council
on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources, Article 
15. http://ec.europa.eu/energy/climate_actions/doc/2008_res_directive_en.pdf

8. Joseph Fargione, Jason Hill, David Tilman, Stephen Polasky, Peter 
Hawthorne, 7th February 2008. Land Clearing and the Biofuel Carbon Debt. 
Science. Doi 10.1126/science.1152747.

9. Timothy Searchinger, Ralph Heimlich, R. A. Houghton, Fengxia Dong, 
Amani Elobeid, Jacinto Fabiosa, Simla Tokgoz, Dermot Hayes, Tun-Hsiang 
Yu, 7th February 2008. Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases 
Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land Use Change . Science. Doi 
10.1126/science.1151861.

10. I am grateful to Jim Thomas from the ETC Group for putting me right.

11. US Department of Energy and US department of Agriculture, April 
2005. Biomass as Feedstock for a Bioenergy and Bioproducts Industry: the 
Technical Feasibility of a Billion-Ton Annual Supply. 
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/biomass/pdfs/final_billionton_vision_report2.pdf

12. David Pimentel and Rattan Lal, 17th August 2007. Letter: Biofuels 
and the Environment. Science.

13. This term has been used by Alice Friedemann, 10th April 2007. Peak 
Soil: Why cellulosic ethanol, biofuels are unsustainable and a threat to 
America. 
http://www.culturechange.org/cms/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=107&Itemid=1

14. PJ Crutzen, AR Mosier, KA Smith and W Winiwarter, 1 August 2007. N2O 
release from agro-biofuel production negates global warming reduction by 
replacing fossil fuels. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 7, 
pp11191--11205. 
http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/7/11191/2007/acpd-7-11191-2007.pdf

15. Joseph Fargione et al, ibid.

-- 
"I am not a liberator. Liberators do not exist. The people liberate themselves." -- Che Guevara

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