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<i>I wonder if the Harvard scientist at the end of this article would
wanna be "we can't be that stupid"? (Last few lines. Of course,
how would I collect the bet if we are extinct?)<br><br>
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</i>Draft of climate report maps out 'highway to extinction'<br><br>
POSTED: 4:14 a.m. EDT, April 1, 2007 <br>
Story Highlights<br>
• Climate change report due Friday in Belgium charts effects by
degree<br>
• Minimal heat rise means more food production in northern regions<br>
• Scientist: "Worst stuff is not going to happen because we can't be
that stupid"<br>
• Report will be second in a U.N.-guided, four-volume review, updating
2001 version <br>
Adjust font size:<br><br>
WASHINGTON (AP) -- A key element of the second major report on climate
change being released Friday in Belgium is a chart that maps out the
effects of global warming, most of them bad, with every degree of
temperature rise.<br><br>
There's one bright spot: A minimal heat rise means more food production
in northern regions of the world.<br><br>
However, the number of species going extinct rises with the heat, as does
the number of people who may starve, or face water shortages, or floods,
according to the projections in the draft report obtained by The
Associated Press<br><br>
Some scientists are calling this degree-by-degree projection a
"highway to extinction."<br><br>
It's likely to be the source of sharp closed-door debate, some scientists
say, along with a multitude of other issues in the 20-chapter draft
report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. While the
wording in the draft is almost guaranteed to change at this week's
meeting in Brussels, several scientists say the focus won't.<br><br>
The final document will be the product of a United Nations network of
2,000 scientists as authors and reviewers, along with representatives of
more than 120 governments as last-minute editors. It will be the second
volume of a four-volume authoritative assessment of Earth's climate being
released this year. The last such effort was in 2001. (Volume 1: Humans
'very likely' cause warming)<br><br>
Andrew Weaver, a climate scientist with the University of Victoria in
British Columbia, said the chart of results from various temperature
levels is "a highway to extinction, but on this highway there are
many turnoffs. This is showing you where the road is heading. The road is
heading toward extinction."<br><br>
Weaver is one of the lead authors of the first report, issued in
February.<br><br>
While humanity will survive, hundreds of millions, maybe billions of
people may not, according to the chart -- if the worst scenarios
happen.<br><br>
The report says global warming has already degraded conditions for many
species, coastal areas and poor people. With a more than 90 percent level
of confidence, the scientists in the draft report say man-made global
warming "over the last three decades has had a discernible influence
on many physical and biological systems."<br><br>
But as the world's average temperature warms from 1990 levels, the
projections get more dire. Add 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit -- 1 degree Celsius
is the calculation scientists use -- and between 400 million and 1.7
billion extra people can't get enough water, some infectious diseases and
allergenic pollens rise, and some amphibians go extinct. <br><br>
But the world's food supply, especially in northern areas, could
increase. That's the likely outcome around 2020, according to the
draft.<br><br>
Add another 1.8 degrees and as many as 2 billion people could be without
water and about 20 percent to 30 percent of the world's species near
extinction. Also, more people start dying because of malnutrition,
disease, heat waves, floods and droughts -- all caused by global warming.
That would happen around 2050, depending on the level of greenhouse gases
from the burning of fossil fuels.<br><br>
At the extreme end of the projections, a 7- to 9-degree average
temperature increase, the chart predicts: "Up to one-fifth of the
world population affected by increased flood events" ... "1.1
to 3.2 billion people with increased water scarcity" ..."major
extinctions around the globe."<br><br>
Despite that dire outlook, several scientists involved in the process say
they are optimistic that such a drastic temperature rise won't happen
because people will reduce carbon dioxide emissions that cause global
warming.<br><br>
"The worst stuff is not going to happen because we can't be that
stupid," said Harvard University oceanographer James McCarthy, who
was a top author of the 2001 version of this report. "Not that I
think the projections aren't that good, but because we can't be that
stupid."<br><br>
Copyright 2007 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.This material
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