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<td class="contentheading" width="100%">OBAMA ADMINISTRATION COPS
TO LIKELIHOOD OF LOOMING GLOBAL OIL SHORTAGE, By Todd Brilliant </td>
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<td colspan="2" class="createdate" valign="top"> Wednesday, 31
March 2010 </td>
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<p>Reprinted from <strong><a target="_self"
href="http://carolynbaker.net/site/v">POST CARBON INSTITUTE</a></strong>
</p>
<p>In an exclusive interview published March 25 in <a
href="http://petrole.blog.lemonde.fr/2010/03/25/washington-considers-a-decline-of-world-oil-production-as-of-2011/"><em><u><span
style="color: rgb(0, 102, 204);">Le Monde</span></u></em></a>, Glen
Sweetnam, the Obama administration’s official expert on the oil market,
confirmed nearly every element of the “Peak Oil” scenario that many
analysts both in and outside the oil industry have warned of for years:
</p>
<p>• A decline of world oil production could begin soon—perhaps
next year, and<br>
• Only extraordinary levels of investment by the oil industry can
maintain current rates of production much longer. </p>
<p>After decades of ignoring the “Peak Oil” theory that predicts
global oil production will peak and then rapidly decline, Sweetnam’s
admission marks a profound shift in the U.S. government’s position on
energy depletion. </p>
<p>"I understand how difficult it must be for officials of the
Department of Energy to acknowledge that the lifeblood of the
industrial economy--cheap oil--is disappearing faster than they had
previously forecast,” says Richard Heinberg, Senior Fellow at Post
Carbon Institute. “But the American People deserve the truth." </p>
<p><strong>Semantics Won’t Save Us</strong><br>
While Sweetnam and the Obama Administration prefer to use the term
“undulating plateau” to “peak,” the terms are nearly identical. Lauren
Mayne, responsible for liquid fuel prospects at the Department of
Energy notes: “Once maximum world oil production is reached, that level
will be approximately maintained for several years thereafter, creating
an undulating plateau. After this plateau period, production will
experience a decline.” </p>
<p>“Approximately.” “Several years.” In other words, the Obama
Administration is predicting declining oil flow rates in the near
future. Also known as peak oil. With 2005 now standing as the record
year for total world crude production, we are already five years into
the "undulating plateau" forecast by the DoE. Regardless of the shape
of the mountaintop--years-long plateau or sharp peak--there is wide
consensus that we are about to head down the steep opposite slope. </p>
<p>Asher Miller, Executive Director of Post Carbon Institute,
calls on the Obama Administration and the DoE to be honest with the
U.S. citizenry about pending oil shortages and what it could mean to
our economy and way of life. “Since the DoE is as concerned,
apparently, as we are about the implications of energy constraints,
perhaps the Department could allocate just 1% of the money saved by
terminating fossil fuel subsidies to conduct a thorough and timely
study of the impacts of high oil prices and shortages, and what could
be done to mitigate that impact. The likelihood is that we will never
again see an increase in the availability of cheap oil. If we are
honest about this, we would immediately shift our investments from
highway expansion to public transit and rail.” </p>
<p><strong>A Call for Honesty</strong><br>
Post Carbon Institute hereby issues a formal call for the U.S.
Department of Energy to come forward with all possible clarity and
directness on where the world stands with regard to future oil
supplies. The American people have already paid for this information
through their taxes and they will bear the brunt of higher oil prices
if these are indeed in the offing. </p>
<p>We also call for urgent updated studies on (1) what would be
the economic impacts of high oil prices and shortages, and (2) what
could be done mitigate those impacts. Independent analyses have so far
suggested that building public transit and rail, rather than more
highways, would give the nation more and better options in the event of
a permanent decline in world oil production; however, that conclusion
will carry far more weight if it bears the imprimatur of the DoE. If,
as previous studies suggest, world oil production is at or close to its
peak and the economic impacts will be severe, then it is incumbent upon
government at all levels to begin preparations. </p>
<p><br>
The <em>Le Monde</em> article follows upon three recent developments
prominently reported in foreign news services: </p>
<p>• On February 10, the UK Industry Task Force on Peak Oil and
Energy Security, headed by Sir Richard Branson of Virgin Airlines among
other prominent industrialists, issued a report, “<a
href="http://peakoiltaskforce.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/final-report-uk-itpoes_report_the-oil-crunch_feb20101.pdf"><em><u><span
style="color: rgb(0, 102, 204);">The Oil Crunch: A wake-up call for
the UK economy</span></u></em></a>,” which forecast that “oil
shortages, insecurity of supply and price volatility will destabilise
economic, political, and social activity potentially by 2015.” </p>
<p>• On March 23, the British government convened a closed-door
meeting between energy minister Lord Hunt and the British business
leaders responsible for the headline-grabbing report. </p>
<p>• On March 22, the British Government’s former chief
scientist, Sir David King, reported that the world’s oil reserves have
been exaggerated by up to a third, and warned of shortages and price
spikes within years. A peer reviewed paper by Dr. King and others, soon
to be published in Energy Policy, supports the conclusion that world
oil production may soon go into decline, followed by shortages and
price spikes. </p>
<p>ABOUT POST CARBON INSTITUTE<br>
Post Carbon Institute provides individuals, communities, businesses,
and governments with the resources needed to understand and respond to
the interrelated economic, energy, and environmental crises that define
the 21st century. PCI envisions a world of resilient communities and
re-localized economies that thrive within ecological bounds. </p>
<p>In addition to Senior Fellow Richard Heinberg, PCI Fellows
include Bill McKibben, Majora Carter, Wes Jackson, David Orr and 24
others. <a href="http://www.postcarbon.org/fellows/"><u><span
style="color: rgb(0, 102, 204);">Full list of PCI Fellows</span></u></a>.
</p>
<p>POST CARBON INSTITUTE<br>
Tel: +1.707.823.8700 • Fax: +1.866.797.5820 <br>
<a href="http://www.postcarbon.org">http://www.postcarbon.org</a>
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