I am forwarding this to the EcoAction list and other lists from a San Francisco Peak Oil Yahoo list. It presents an apocalyptic scenario but is rooted in some science. Some issues raised in this context is what are the potential sources for infrastructure development. We should ratchet up activity supporting S. 2842, the Aging Water Infrastructure and Maintenance Act sponsored by Harry Reid (Dem, NV). http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=s110-2842 Mato Ska GPCA San Francisco To: sfbayoil@yahoogroups.com From: alice_friedemann@yahoo.com Date: Tue, 2 Dec 2008 17:56:56 +0000 Subject: [sfbayoil] City of San Francisco Infrastructure Everyone, This is what I spent a few hours writing for the San Francisco Peak Oil Task Force before they had a meeting on the infrastructure chapter -- it's just what I scrabbled together off the top of my head the day of the meeting, and does not reflect the immense amount of research I've done on infrastructure over the years. The infrastructure posts hit a raw nerve in me. We can cope with a lot of hardship, but social disorder is far more likely if the infrastructure fails. People will die -- clean water and food account for 90% of our lifespan over age 50, not medicine. Alice City of San Francisco Infrastructure By Alice Friedemann, July 15, 2008 Since there are no alternative energy sources, except for fusion, which could possibly replace fossil fuels (Hoffert, Hayden), and there aren't any alternative energy sources that can replace fossil fuels in the window of time left, the city of San Francisco needs to prioritize how their budget is spent on coping with the energy crisis. The American Society of Civil Engineers (ACSE) gave grades of D- to drinking water, D- to wastewater, and C+ to solid waste, so clearly, even without an energy crisis, these essential services need more attention and funding. And since these services are ninety percent of the reason we live past age fifty (Garrett), clearly they should receive a large portion of whatever funding is available. The lifetime of some components of the clean water infrastructure last for only 15 years, and at most 100 years. Pumping stations, force and trunk mains wear out. In this century, all of the 600,000 miles of pipes delivering clean water to homes will need to be replaced. Every component of the water system is aging. The energy required to replace or maintain thousands of treatment plants, pumping stations, reservoirs and dams over the next century is staggering (EPA). City departments that provide these essential, life supporting services should be replacing the oldest water lines, sewer pipes, and other aging infrastructure as soon as possible. In addition, they should be buying and stockpiling duplicate and even triplicate spare parts, pipes, and other components in anticipation of their unavailability in the future due to: " Dollar weakness from the inflation of war and increasingly higher energy prices, and continuing bailouts of financial institutions as the unwinding of debt, the subprime crisis, derivatives, and other highly leveraged financial instruments continues. " If there's a global depression, the companies that make fundamental components of water treatment systems may go out of business. " Supply chains may break down in countries having power crises, natural disasters, social disorder, etc Energy Efficiency at Water Treatment Facilities The state of California has a website dedicated to using less energy to deliver water and treat wastewater with many useful recommendations: http://www.energy.ca.gov/process/water/wastewater_treatment.html Water Conservation Conservation of water by citizens and businesses will be important not only to stress water systems less, but due the possibility of a long-term drought. City staff can educate everyone on how to cut back by teaching people how to read their water meter, check for leaks, calculate how much water they're using, water conservation strategies, irrigation information, etc. Underground Facilities Although San Francisco has built hundreds of cisterns underground, in a future of climate change and intermittent power, earthquakes, and fires, the need for water will grow in importance. Emergency water supplies for fruit and nut trees and community gardens during a drought would be especially useful. Underground storage should be built to house people during an earthquake, since underground spaces are less vulnerable to earthquakes, and stay roughly the same temperature, so they don't need to be heated or cooled. The Moscone center will certainly be useful should such a situation arise, but can't house the entire population of the city as well as being the center of operations for City Hall. These underground facilities can also be used to store durable food, so that if grocery stores are unable to keep their shelves stocked, at least there will be alternative food available. This was historically always the role cities played. In 2004, I asked the state office of emergency services if the state or cities had food, fuel, blankets, and so on to provide to citizens in natural disasters, and Kathleen Bailey, Program Manager of the OES Coastal Region replied: "It would be prohibitively expensive and impractical for cities to provide sufficient supplies for an entire populace. Absent a commitment by the voters to pay for the purchase and warehousing of supplies and the creation of a bureaucracy to oversee the unending project, the cities do not have the funds or authority to assume such a role." But to prevent social disorder, it would be wise for the city of San Francisco to anticipate the need to stockpile food for its residents. Or they can try to get grocery stores to take on this role, as happened recently in Britain (Oakeshott). Fire Department Since the city of San Francisco already depends on tourism for a great deal of its revenue, and will need tourism even more in the future, preventing the city from burning down is paramount. Even more underground cisterns for firefighting and emergency supplies will help to fight fires when the power is out from energy shortages and natural disasters. People will be tempted to try to cook food over fires in their fireplaces during energy outages, so it's essential that this be illegal. If community centers are set up, perhaps at existing local schools which already have cooking facilities, the temptation to do this will be less, and far less energy per person will be used if food is cooked communally. Police Department Community centers will also get people out of their cold, dark apartments into warm, lit, public places. The city of San Francisco should encourage a "café society" through tax and other city policies to get people out of their homes to maximize energy use. Electricity can then be channeled to street lighting, internet cafes, movie theaters, community centers, restaurants, and so on rather than homes to make use of limited energy better. The more people out on the streets, the less crime there will be. This will deter gangs from taking over dark and empty streets. Recycling San Francisco needs to get as close to "zero waste" as possible. Japan requires manufacturers to take back their air conditioners, televisions, washing machines, and refrigerators. San Francisco might consider copying some of the Japanese cities which have over 40 kinds of recycling categories. http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/12/international/asia/12garbage.html?_r=1&ore... Since food and the packaging it comes in comprise a hefty chunk of what enters the landfill, grocery stores should be encouraged to sell food from bulk supplies in re-usable containers, and to tax packaged items. This will also help to mitigate food supply crises and vastly improve the health of San Francisco residents. Incineration of solid waste is wasteful and hard to do safely because of the toxic fumes released from plastics and other materials. Resources that could have been used are burned unnecessarily, and very little electricity can be generated. Often the products burned would be worth far more recycled than as a fuel (Odum 218). Once reusable items, concentrated materials, and toxic waste is removed, what's left over can be shredded and dispersed in forests. This was done in Florida and it increased the growth of trees because it restores the soil. The content of "green" waste should be composted locally rather than hauled far away and chipped or dumped as a layer in landfills. (Odum 218) Reward people for their efforts. Samsam Bakhtiari, a peak oil expert who used to work at the National Iranian Oil Company and Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, urges the use of market incentives to reward people for reducing, reusing, or recycling. Transportation fuel for essential vehicles Biodiesel is not sustainable, takes more energy to make than is received from it, ecologically destructive, has a short shelf life, and impure or decayed biodiesel can shorten engine life - not a good idea at a time when new engines and replacement parts are likely to be difficult to come by (Friedemann). California still produces 40% of its own oil, and Alaskan and other oil are likely to be available for a while. When rationing begins, essential city departments will receive what they need before the remaining oil is sold to the public. Streets & sidewalks Enforce truck weight codes vigorously because overweight trucks are one of the main causes of the need to repair roads. Remove or perforate as many streets and sidewalks as possible to allow water infiltration to assist the growth of fruit trees, community gardens, and runoff (Odum, p215). Don't allow buildings on existing green spaces and parking lots Some groups believe that building density into cities reduces commuting and urban sprawl. But infilling is not appropriate at a time when decentralization is required, and will diminish San Francisco residents access to open, green space - very much needed not only for local gardens to reduce the energy to transport food, but for much needed stress reduction and enjoyment as the ability to travel to natural areas lessens (odum 216). Floating Piers Because of the risk of rising sea levels, build a few, very long piers that rise and fall with the tide for future sailing vessels, sloops, and barges. Containerization will continue for a while, since container ships use bunker fuel (the worst, dirtiest, gunkiest stuff) and despite their large size, are efficient given the overall amount of cargo moved, but San Francisco should anticipate the end of containerization and leap-frog the Port of Oakland. Long Term Although Hetch Hetchy will continue to provide electricity for years to come, all dams are eventually rendered useless by sediment. If there is a long-term drought cycle beginning, the normal climate in California (the last century was one of the wettest in millennia), then electricity outages are likely to occur when natural gas plants can't make up for the lack of water at Hetch Hetchy. Any steps that can be taken now, while energy is still abundant and cheap, should be taken to make the water treatment and sewage systems as functional as possible without any power at all, such as more use of gravity, (artificial) wetlands, fish ponds, forests, non-food farms, fertilizer, and other methods from before fossil fuels (odum 218, 227, 228). References ACSE American Society of Civil Engineers Report Card for America's Infrastructure. 2005. http://www.asce.org/reportcard/2005/index.cfm EPA. United States Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Water . 2002. The Clean Water and Drinking Water Infrastructure Gap Analysis. (4606M) EPA-816-R-02-020 www.epa.gov/safewater Friedemann, A. 2007. "Peak Soil: Why Cellulosic and other Biofuels are Not Sustainable and a Threat to America's National Security". http://www.energyskeptic.com/Peak_Soil.htm Garrett, L. 2001. Betrayal of Trust: The Collapse of Global Public Health. Hyperion Hayden, H. 2005. The Solar Fraud: Why Solar Energy Won't Run the World.. Vales Lake Publishing. Hoffert, M.,et al. November 1, 2002. Advanced Technology Paths to Global Climate Stability: Energy for a Greenhouse Planet. Science, 298: 981-987 Oakeshott, J. July 6, 2008 Government asks stores to stockpile food to overcome hauliers strike. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4276490.ece Odum, H.T. 2001. "A Prosperous Way Down. Principles and Policies. University Press of Colorado.