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From community_choice_energy_alliance-bounces@cypress.sfbaysc.org Thu Aug 25 14:10:48 2005 Envelope-to: done@energy-net.org From: Ecological Options Network <eon3@earthlink.net> Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 13:59:00 -0700 Subject: [Community_choice_energy_alliance] Heinberg Comment on 'Oil at the "Breaking Point"'

Thanks to Richard Heinberg (author of The Party's Over, Power Down) for the following response to the NYT/Maas article "The Breaking Point," we circulated earlier this week. JH ======================

These calculations, "33 years left" or "24 years left" are completely irrelevant, as it is a physical impossibility to continue extracting the resource at a constant or increasing rate until suddenly it is all gone. Instead, production inevitably--for purely physical reasons--follows a rough bell-shaped curve, with a slow ramp-up, a peak, and a slow decline. The oil will not be all gone in 33 years: we will still be extracting it in dribs and drabs. However, much sooner than that--probably next year or the year after--we will see the all-time peak of production, followed by a decline of perhaps 3 percent per year in the possible rate of extraction. That's the only calculation that matters.

Richard

============ [New York Times August 21, 2005

The Breaking Point By PETER MAASS

The largest oil terminal in the world, Ras Tanura, is located on the eastern coast of Saudi Arabia, along the Persian Gulf. From Ras Tanura's control tower, you can see the classic totems of oil's dominion -- supertankers coming and going, row upon row of storage tanks and miles and miles of pipes. Ras Tanura, which I visited in June, is the funnel through which nearly 10 percent of the world's daily supply of petroleum flows. Standing in the control tower, you are surrounded by more than 50 million barrels of oil, yet not a drop can be seen.... ]

======================

EON

the Ecological Options Network

"What's Working Where, Worldwide"

<http://www.eon3.net>www.eon3.net

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"><"<>"><"<>"><"<>"><"<>"><"<>"><"<>" Organizing is Sorting in to smaller piles, Then dealing with them. Wonder why you can't? It is always best practice To ask how you can. Don Eichelberger Abalone Alliance Safe Energy Clearinghouse http://www.energy-net.org San Francisco Green Party http://www.sfgreenparty.org California State Green Party Issues Working Group Co-coordinator http://cagreens.org/giwg/ Green Community/GreenWorks project for sustainable small businesses http://www.sfgreenworks.org 2940 16th St., #309 San Francisco, CA 94103 phone 415-861-0592 or 415-567-4577 done@energy-net.org done@greens.org done@ispwest.com