[Sustain] Fwd: Obama Administration Admits Looming Global Oil Shortage

Thu Apr 1 13:51:27 PDT 2010

http://www.carolynbaker.net/site/content/view/1584/1/

OBAMA ADMINISTRATION COPS TO LIKELIHOOD OF LOOMING GLOBAL OIL SHORTAGE, 
By Todd Brilliant 	PDF 
<http://carolynbaker.net/site/index2.php?option=com_content&do_pdf=1&id=1584> 
	Print 
<http://carolynbaker.net/site/index2.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1584&pop=1&page=0&Itemid=1> 
	E-mail 
<http://carolynbaker.net/site/index2.php?option=com_content&task=emailform&id=1584&itemid=1> 

Wednesday, 31 March 2010

Reprinted from *POST CARBON INSTITUTE <http://carolynbaker.net/site/v>*

In an exclusive interview published March 25 in /_Le Monde_/ 
<http://petrole.blog.lemonde.fr/2010/03/25/washington-considers-a-decline-of-world-oil-production-as-of-2011/>, 
Glen Sweetnam, the Obama administration’s official expert on the oil 
market, confirmed nearly every element of the “Peak Oil” scenario that 
many analysts both in and outside the oil industry have warned of for 
years:

• A decline of world oil production could begin soon—perhaps next year, and
• Only extraordinary levels of investment by the oil industry can 
maintain current rates of production much longer.

After decades of ignoring the “Peak Oil” theory that predicts global oil 
production will peak and then rapidly decline, Sweetnam’s admission 
marks a profound shift in the U.S. government’s position on energy 
depletion.

"I understand how difficult it must be for officials of the Department 
of Energy to acknowledge that the lifeblood of the industrial 
economy--cheap oil--is disappearing faster than they had previously 
forecast,” says Richard Heinberg, Senior Fellow at Post Carbon 
Institute. “But the American People deserve the truth."

*Semantics Won’t Save Us*
While Sweetnam and the Obama Administration prefer to use the term 
“undulating plateau” to “peak,” the terms are nearly identical. Lauren 
Mayne, responsible for liquid fuel prospects at the Department of Energy 
notes: “Once maximum world oil production is reached, that level will be 
approximately maintained for several years thereafter, creating an 
undulating plateau. After this plateau period, production will 
experience a decline.”

“Approximately.” “Several years.” In other words, the Obama 
Administration is predicting declining oil flow rates in the near 
future. Also known as peak oil. With 2005 now standing as the record 
year for total world crude production, we are already five years into 
the "undulating plateau" forecast by the DoE. Regardless of the shape of 
the mountaintop--years-long plateau or sharp peak--there is wide 
consensus that we are about to head down the steep opposite slope.

Asher Miller, Executive Director of Post Carbon Institute, calls on the 
Obama Administration and the DoE to be honest with the U.S. citizenry 
about pending oil shortages and what it could mean to our economy and 
way of life. “Since the DoE is as concerned, apparently, as we are about 
the implications of energy constraints, perhaps the Department could 
allocate just 1% of the money saved by terminating fossil fuel subsidies 
to conduct a thorough and timely study of the impacts of high oil prices 
and shortages, and what could be done to mitigate that impact. The 
likelihood is that we will never again see an increase in the 
availability of cheap oil. If we are honest about this, we would 
immediately shift our investments from highway expansion to public 
transit and rail.”

*A Call for Honesty*
Post Carbon Institute hereby issues a formal call for the U.S. 
Department of Energy to come forward with all possible clarity and 
directness on where the world stands with regard to future oil supplies. 
The American people have already paid for this information through their 
taxes and they will bear the brunt of higher oil prices if these are 
indeed in the offing.

We also call for urgent updated studies on (1) what would be the 
economic impacts of high oil prices and shortages, and (2) what could be 
done mitigate those impacts. Independent analyses have so far suggested 
that building public transit and rail, rather than more highways, would 
give the nation more and better options in the event of a permanent 
decline in world oil production; however, that conclusion will carry far 
more weight if it bears the imprimatur of the DoE. If, as previous 
studies suggest, world oil production is at or close to its peak and the 
economic impacts will be severe, then it is incumbent upon government at 
all levels to begin preparations.

The /Le Monde/ article follows upon three recent developments 
prominently reported in foreign news services:

• On February 10, the UK Industry Task Force on Peak Oil and Energy 
Security, headed by Sir Richard Branson of Virgin Airlines among other 
prominent industrialists, issued a report, “/_The Oil Crunch: A wake-up 
call for the UK economy_/ 
<http://peakoiltaskforce.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/final-report-uk-itpoes_report_the-oil-crunch_feb20101.pdf>,” 
which forecast that “oil shortages, insecurity of supply and price 
volatility will destabilise economic, political, and social activity 
potentially by 2015.”

• On March 23, the British government convened a closed-door meeting 
between energy minister Lord Hunt and the British business leaders 
responsible for the headline-grabbing report.

• On March 22, the British Government’s former chief scientist, Sir 
David King, reported that the world’s oil reserves have been exaggerated 
by up to a third, and warned of shortages and price spikes within years. 
A peer reviewed paper by Dr. King and others, soon to be published in 
Energy Policy, supports the conclusion that world oil production may 
soon go into decline, followed by shortages and price spikes.

ABOUT POST CARBON INSTITUTE
Post Carbon Institute provides individuals, communities, businesses, and 
governments with the resources needed to understand and respond to the 
interrelated economic, energy, and environmental crises that define the 
21st century. PCI envisions a world of resilient communities and 
re-localized economies that thrive within ecological bounds.

In addition to Senior Fellow Richard Heinberg, PCI Fellows include Bill 
McKibben, Majora Carter, Wes Jackson, David Orr and 24 others. _Full 
list of PCI Fellows_ <http://www.postcarbon.org/fellows/>.

POST CARBON INSTITUTE
Tel: +1.707.823.8700 • Fax: +1.866.797.5820
http://www.postcarbon.org • media at postcarbon.org 
<mailto:media at postcarbon.org>

____________________________
*EON*
The Ecological Options Network
/"Documenting Solutions"/
www.eon3.net <http://www.eon3.net>

=
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://list.sfgreens.org/pipermail/sustainability/attachments/20100401/27fe9ebf/attachment-0001.htm>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: PDF
Type: image/png
Size: 394 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://list.sfgreens.org/pipermail/sustainability/attachments/20100401/27fe9ebf/attachment-0003.png>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: Print
Type: image/png
Size: 426 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://list.sfgreens.org/pipermail/sustainability/attachments/20100401/27fe9ebf/attachment-0004.png>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: E-mail
Type: image/png
Size: 424 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://list.sfgreens.org/pipermail/sustainability/attachments/20100401/27fe9ebf/attachment-0005.png>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: oil well.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 68333 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://list.sfgreens.org/pipermail/sustainability/attachments/20100401/27fe9ebf/attachment-0001.jpg>