[Sustain] On the Highway to Extinction

[Dennis Brumm]

I wonder if the Harvard scientist at the end of 
this article would wanna be "we can't be that 
stupid"? (Last few lines. Of course, how would I 
collect the bet if we are extinct?)


Draft of climate report maps out 'highway to extinction'

POSTED: 4:14 a.m. EDT, April 1, 2007
Story Highlights
• Climate change report due Friday in Belgium charts effects by degree
• Minimal heat rise means more food production in northern regions
• Scientist: "Worst stuff is not going to happen 
because we can't be that stupid"
• Report will be second in a U.N.-guided, 
four-volume review, updating 2001 version
Adjust font size:

WASHINGTON (AP) -- A key element of the second 
major report on climate change being released 
Friday in Belgium is a chart that maps out the 
effects of global warming, most of them bad, with 
every degree of temperature rise.

There's one bright spot: A minimal heat rise 
means more food production in northern regions of the world.

However, the number of species going extinct 
rises with the heat, as does the number of people 
who may starve, or face water shortages, or 
floods, according to the projections in the draft 
report obtained by The Associated Press

Some scientists are calling this degree-by-degree 
projection a "highway to extinction."

It's likely to be the source of sharp closed-door 
debate, some scientists say, along with a 
multitude of other issues in the 20-chapter draft 
report from the Intergovernmental Panel on 
Climate Change. While the wording in the draft is 
almost guaranteed to change at this week's 
meeting in Brussels, several scientists say the focus won't.

The final document will be the product of a 
United Nations network of 2,000 scientists as 
authors and reviewers, along with representatives 
of more than 120 governments as last-minute 
editors. It will be the second volume of a 
four-volume authoritative assessment of Earth's 
climate being released this year. The last such 
effort was in 2001. (Volume 1: Humans 'very likely' cause warming)

Andrew Weaver, a climate scientist with the 
University of Victoria in British Columbia, said 
the chart of results from various temperature 
levels is "a highway to extinction, but on this 
highway there are many turnoffs. This is showing 
you where the road is heading. The road is heading toward extinction."

Weaver is one of the lead authors of the first report, issued in February.

While humanity will survive, hundreds of 
millions, maybe billions of people may not, 
according to the chart -- if the worst scenarios happen.

The report says global warming has already 
degraded conditions for many species, coastal 
areas and poor people. With a more than 90 
percent level of confidence, the scientists in 
the draft report say man-made global warming 
"over the last three decades has had a 
discernible influence on many physical and biological systems."

But as the world's average temperature warms from 
1990 levels, the projections get more dire. Add 
1.8 degrees Fahrenheit -- 1 degree Celsius is the 
calculation scientists use -- and between 400 
million and 1.7 billion extra people can't get 
enough water, some infectious diseases and 
allergenic pollens rise, and some amphibians go extinct.

But the world's food supply, especially in 
northern areas, could increase. That's the likely 
outcome around 2020, according to the draft.

Add another 1.8 degrees and as many as 2 billion 
people could be without water and about 20 
percent to 30 percent of the world's species near 
extinction. Also, more people start dying because 
of malnutrition, disease, heat waves, floods and 
droughts -- all caused by global warming. That 
would happen around 2050, depending on the level 
of greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels.

At the extreme end of the projections, a 7- to 
9-degree average temperature increase, the chart 
predicts: "Up to one-fifth of the world 
population affected by increased flood events" 
... "1.1 to 3.2 billion people with increased 
water scarcity" ..."major extinctions around the globe."

Despite that dire outlook, several scientists 
involved in the process say they are optimistic 
that such a drastic temperature rise won't happen 
because people will reduce carbon dioxide emissions that cause global warming.

"The worst stuff is not going to happen because 
we can't be that stupid," said Harvard University 
oceanographer James McCarthy, who was a top 
author of the 2001 version of this report. "Not 
that I think the projections aren't that good, 
but because we can't be that stupid."

Copyright 2007 The Associated Press. All rights 
reserved.This material may not be published, 
broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.  
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