I wonder if the Harvard scientist at the end of
this article would wanna be "we can't be that
stupid"? (Last few lines. Of course, how would I
collect the bet if we are extinct?)
Draft of climate report maps out 'highway to extinction'
POSTED: 4:14 a.m. EDT, April 1, 2007
Story Highlights
Climate change report due Friday in Belgium charts effects by degree
Minimal heat rise means more food production in northern regions
Scientist: "Worst stuff is not going to happen
because we can't be that stupid"
Report will be second in a U.N.-guided,
four-volume review, updating 2001 version
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WASHINGTON (AP) -- A key element of the second
major report on climate change being released
Friday in Belgium is a chart that maps out the
effects of global warming, most of them bad, with
every degree of temperature rise.
There's one bright spot: A minimal heat rise
means more food production in northern regions of the world.
However, the number of species going extinct
rises with the heat, as does the number of people
who may starve, or face water shortages, or
floods, according to the projections in the draft
report obtained by The Associated Press
Some scientists are calling this degree-by-degree
projection a "highway to extinction."
It's likely to be the source of sharp closed-door
debate, some scientists say, along with a
multitude of other issues in the 20-chapter draft
report from the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change. While the wording in the draft is
almost guaranteed to change at this week's
meeting in Brussels, several scientists say the focus won't.
The final document will be the product of a
United Nations network of 2,000 scientists as
authors and reviewers, along with representatives
of more than 120 governments as last-minute
editors. It will be the second volume of a
four-volume authoritative assessment of Earth's
climate being released this year. The last such
effort was in 2001. (Volume 1: Humans 'very likely' cause warming)
Andrew Weaver, a climate scientist with the
University of Victoria in British Columbia, said
the chart of results from various temperature
levels is "a highway to extinction, but on this
highway there are many turnoffs. This is showing
you where the road is heading. The road is heading toward extinction."
Weaver is one of the lead authors of the first report, issued in February.
While humanity will survive, hundreds of
millions, maybe billions of people may not,
according to the chart -- if the worst scenarios happen.
The report says global warming has already
degraded conditions for many species, coastal
areas and poor people. With a more than 90
percent level of confidence, the scientists in
the draft report say man-made global warming
"over the last three decades has had a
discernible influence on many physical and biological systems."
But as the world's average temperature warms from
1990 levels, the projections get more dire. Add
1.8 degrees Fahrenheit -- 1 degree Celsius is the
calculation scientists use -- and between 400
million and 1.7 billion extra people can't get
enough water, some infectious diseases and
allergenic pollens rise, and some amphibians go extinct.
But the world's food supply, especially in
northern areas, could increase. That's the likely
outcome around 2020, according to the draft.
Add another 1.8 degrees and as many as 2 billion
people could be without water and about 20
percent to 30 percent of the world's species near
extinction. Also, more people start dying because
of malnutrition, disease, heat waves, floods and
droughts -- all caused by global warming. That
would happen around 2050, depending on the level
of greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels.
At the extreme end of the projections, a 7- to
9-degree average temperature increase, the chart
predicts: "Up to one-fifth of the world
population affected by increased flood events"
... "1.1 to 3.2 billion people with increased
water scarcity" ..."major extinctions around the globe."
Despite that dire outlook, several scientists
involved in the process say they are optimistic
that such a drastic temperature rise won't happen
because people will reduce carbon dioxide emissions that cause global warming.
"The worst stuff is not going to happen because
we can't be that stupid," said Harvard University
oceanographer James McCarthy, who was a top
author of the 2001 version of this report. "Not
that I think the projections aren't that good,
but because we can't be that stupid."
Copyright 2007 The Associated Press. All rights
reserved.This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
